Upsetting Reality: Exposing the NCAA Tournament Committee's 'Major Upset' Scheme

On the first day of the 2011 NCAA Tournament, there were 'two major upsets.' At least that is what the media would have you to believe. The 'two major upsets' were 12 seeded Richmond beating 5 seeded Villanova and 13 seeded Morehead State beating 4 seeded Louisville.

Richmond (25-7) had the 41st best RPI of .5881. Villanova (21-11) had the 39th best RPI of .5889. When we consider that, an elementary estimation would tell us that Richmond had a 49.9 percent chance of winning. Not so upsetting is it?

Louisville (25-10) had an RPI of 17 and Morehead State had an RPI of 77. So there is a case to be made that this was an upset. But maybe not so fast! Louisville was only 9-7 versus teams in the Top 50 RPI. And against teams in the 51-100 RPI, Louisville finished 3-3. So overall, Louisville was a mediocre (but respectable) 12-10 versus Top 100 teams. To add perspective the other four seeds, Wisconsin (14-8), Texas (13-7), and Kentucky (13-7) all had better records versus the top 100 RPI teams. 

Also, being that Morehead State and Louisville are both Kentucky teams, it is quite likely, Morehead State had likely scouted Louisville on television throughout the season. It's a subtle advantage (but an advantage that likely paid huge dividends).

When one really looks at the reality of the match-ups, this part of the bracket was the most tailor made bracket for a 'Cinderella' to emerge into the Sweet Sixteen. And now that 'cinderellas' Morehead State and Richmond are matched up in The Round Of 32, the NCAA Tournament Committee have their coveted underdog element.

'Here's your biscuit America. Enjoy it. Of course we're going to manipulate the rest of the brackets to serve our interests and put teams like SDSU (RPI 3, Seed 2), BYU (RPI 5, Seed 3) and Utah State (RPI 15, Seed 12 and opponent's RPI 24, seed 5) down by giving them lower (worse) seeds (and tougher match-ups) than they earned.

How it would have worked in fair system

Shots Heard will use it's fair seed analysis: What seed a school should have received by the RPI (See the following chart).

Morehead State would have still been a 13 seed (tweaking Shots Heard's 'Fair System' to still allow for automatic bids). They would have faced off against A University In Connecticut. They would not have had the television advantage. A University In Connecticut is 4-1 against teams 51-100 RPI and that is the half of it. There is an 80 percent chance that A University In Connecticut would have won. Had Morehead State won, then it would have been at best, 'a mild upset.'

Villanova would not have been a five seed that they had no business holding. They would have been a nine seed. Meanwhile, Belmont would have been a 10 seed that faced off against George Mason. That game would have been an interesting match-up, but there would be no artificial upset bid on the line. It would just be two teams playing in the match-up that they earned.

A true 'major upset' that did not happen - Princeton beating Kentucky

The closest thing to a 'major upset' was Princeton beating Kentucky. Although had the upset occurred, Shots Heard would classify it as simply an upset. Although Kentucky undoubtedly has future NBA players and Princeton likely has none. The Princeton team was older and more disciplined. 

The overall reality is reflected by Kentucky's 7 RPI and Princeton's 40 RPI. How often do teams with a Top 10 RPI lose to teams in the Top 50 RPI? Top 10 RPI teams were 85-33 (72 percent). 

A rough estimate then gives, Princeton a 28 percent chance of winning that game. But then account for the fact that Princeton is at the lower end of the Top 50 RPI and the chances go to 20 to 25 percent.

But here is the kicker. With the game being played in Tampa, Florida (a fourteen hour drive or cheap Southwest flight) away from the hardcore Lexington, Kentucky fans; thousands of Kentucky fans traveled to see the game. The entire lower bowl was essentially filled with raucous Kentucky fans in blue, creating a home court type of atmosphere. So the most realistic estimate would be that Princeton had about a ten percent chance of winning that game.

Remembering the real upset

We witnessed an RPI 40 Princeton team play a solid game to almost pull off the virtual road victory against RPI 7 Kentucky. But let us not forget that teams like RPI 35 Harvard, who Princeton beat on a buzzer beater, were worthy of being in the tournament and making their mark. Unfortunately, the 'Power Six' corporate styled Tournament Committee were not having any of that. 

Instead it was important to cater to conferences like what Charles Barkley calls 'The over-rated Big East.' Aren't you glad that that (tied) 9th place, RPI 64 Marquette could get into the tournament instead?

And what did UCONN get for finishing 9-9 and tied for ninth in the Big East? They got a four seed after 'increasing their stock' by winning all five of their conference tournament games.

So 'power conference team' can use their conference tournaments to 'improve their stock' but its death by buzzer beater for teams like Harvard? 

Is that shady? Is the mafia shady? No. It is corrupt.

Picture: Morehead State's Demonte Harper